For baby boomers ‘fear’ wins.

This will seem simplistic and controversial but it’s time we faced up to a demographic reality, for our aging population an unavoidable psychological state has become overwhelmingly prevalent, the cup is now half-empty. Journalistic commentary via the major financial media sources can be split into two camps the fear camp, predominantly those representing the baby-boomer generation, and the optimists, being the Gen X, Y and now Z’s. As one commentary we crossed recently put it, it’s created a financial situation where those in the baby-boom generation (the holders of majority of major assets) are developing a concentrically smaller mindset in terms of wealth whilst those in the younger generations simply do not have the financial clout to overcome a disproportionate distribution of assets. In simple terms there are those that can’t afford to sell and those that can’t afford to buy. An economic impasse is the consequence. Can the reality of this demographic psychology be ignored? Of course there are exceptions to the journalistic encampment rule (Ross Gittins of the SMH we are looking at you). However, true innovative thinking, be it financial or social, won’t flourish when oppressed by ageing conservatism. There is no place for global economic naivety, in going on five years Europe has failed to adequately address it’s problems, America’s recovery remains tentative and China’s growth has necessarily slowed. But our own growth and resilience as an economy is being hampered from within. Is it time the older generation reassessed their stance and question their legacy? Is this necessarily a new phenomenon or magnified by our populations weighting? Should we be surprised that the middle-class is predicted to continue to decline? Of course time will tell.

Take a closer look at Sydney falls.

Yesterday’s much publicised May housing figures for Sydney supplied by RP Data and handled as delicately as only our media know how (Ed: The only thing Channel Ten had missing was a reference to the forthcoming apocalypse as predicted by the Aztec calendar) deserve some greater review. Thankfully Cameron Kusher has provided his take on the figures noting “the biggest house price falls in Sydney last month were at the prestige end (down 6.4 per cent), which dragged the rest of the market lower. The most affordable 20 per cent of houses actually rose slightly, while the middle 60 per cent fell by 0.4 per cent.” Thanks for the clarification Cameron. More…

Chatswood sale has agents saying ‘WTF just happened?’

Peter Chauncy from McGrath has been left stunned (Ed: and no doubt created some very happy vendors) when on the fall of the hammer the conservation zoned single level residence in Blakesley Street Chatswood sold for $2.2 million on Saturday. Expectations had been around $1.35 million but in bidding increments as high as $60,000 these were smashed. Highest street price had been suggested just shy of $1.5 million previously. Sydney’s weekend preliminary clearance rate has been recorded by APM at 57%. More…

CBRE thinks so…

The most recent OECD economic outlook report, released last night in Paris, has shown Australia’s projected economic growth close to the top three during 2012, behind only South Korea, Mexico and Chile. Long term projections to 2050 give Australia the highest growth rate in the developed world after Chile and Mexico. The report has underlined the high dollar, consumer confidence and jobs continue to drag on property prices (ED: as at posting the Aussie $ had dipped below 98c US.). Of note were projections to 2050 giving Australia the highest growth rate in the developed world after Chile and Mexico. So overall Australian’s should have reason to shake off the pessimism, eventually. Certainly CBRE see sunshine on the horizon. After taking a long hard look at the last twelve months sales data the team at CBRE have no doubt seen the opportunity to take a more aggressive approach in direct real estate investment market. No doubt other majors are attempting to position themselves, some more effectively than others… More…

Sydney Simmers

Affirmation from preliminary indicators on last weeks report for Sydney auction results with clearance rates confirmed as the best for 2012, so far…. APM indicates a clearance rate of 61.8% (Ed. not bad in any market). Price growth seems to be teetering and the onset of winter will be challenging for some. Here’s to seeing the result spread nationally to validate a turning point for all. More…

Winter is coming, momentum counts…

Positive signals across the board supporting our more recent posts on market activity in Sydney and Melbourne. Over the weekend Sydney recorded a 61.8% clearance rate from 359 properties whilst Melbourne recorded a clearance rate of 63% out of 591. More…

Housing finance surprise, don’t tell…

Today’s ABS housing finance data for March showed a surprising seasonally adjusted 0.3 per cent rise, running contrary to the touted fall of 2.0 per cent by many analysts. So, what’s the story? A deeper analysis indicates a swing to locking in rates at their current level in anticipation of forthcoming rises. Some have been keen to delve deeper into the state by state data (clearly showing a surge in WA), cutting through the spin we relate the weekends’ Sydney and Melbourne activity with a possibly a deeper current. Call us optimistic, but, could the tide be on the turn? More…

Woop, there it is.

Don’t look now but this weekends auction results could be surprising. Traditionally cooler weather spells subdued results but our on-the-ground sources (thanks to the Harcourt Hills boys) as well as preliminary Melbourne results say something. A sustained surge? We wait to see. More…

Ed: Shout out to Ant-eater high-five.

Rate change, meh…

Interest rate changes no longer have an impact on buyer decisions. That’s the underlying theme being expressed by a number of commentators after yesterday’s RBA surprise slashing by 0.5 points. Commsec analyst Craig James pointed out “we do know that there’s plenty of bargains out there for cashed-up buyers. But the missing ingredient is basically confidence”. Even industry veteran John McGrath sneses we have left the traditional interest rate link to buyer activity in the past. Increasingly buyer activity has become subject to a larger group of global influences which gives reason for us to reflect on the theory of compressed market shifts. Given the uncertainty of Europe, most recently Spain’s difficulties, and the disjointed recovery in the U.S. as they head into an election period culminating in our own fractured domestic political landscape all of which form part of the daily soup served up to home buyers, is it any wonder there is reason for a lack of confidence in the market? That being the case, what will it take to restore security to buyer perception? Welcome to the “NEW” normal.

Land – Undersupply or Oversupply?

Interesting article from Adam Carr reflecting on the most recent housing data and what impact RBA action (or inaction, depending on your viewpoint) has had on housing activity. Comments got heated on the whole oversupply / undersupply discussion, but I thought these little gems worth sharing, “There is no shortage of residential land! Look at the state government body statistics on residential lot approvals!” – HQ. And from Bruce Meaney, “The housing industry needs more new homes, but it’s not interest rates holding back the starts, it’s the over valued price of blocks of land.”

A quick scan of realestate.com.au shows 20 new land releases advertised in Queensland, 20 in NSW and 30 in Victoria. So is that enough land released to satisfy demand? Or are developers happy to drip-feed the market to retain their best return?